内燃机之死(2)
5 但是电气化使汽车工业陷入了混乱。汽车工业最好的品牌都建立在它们深厚的工程技术积淀上,特别是在德国。和目前的燃油汽车相比,电动汽车结构更简单,部件也更少。它们就好比装上轮子的计算机。这意味着需要的组装人手更少,需要专业供应商提供的配套系统也更少。不生产电动汽车的制造厂的工人担忧自己可能面临被炒鱿鱼的命运。故障少了,维修和配件市场会随之萎缩。工厂老旧,员工队伍臃肿,这样的历史包袱令今天的汽车制造商不堪重负,而新入行者将轻装上阵。高端品牌依靠款式设计和驾驶性能或许还能够屹立不倒,但面向大众市场的低利润汽车制造商将不得不把竞争重心放在成本上。
6 Assuming, of course, that people want to own cars at propulsion, along with ride-hailing and self-driving technology, could mean that ownership is largely replaced, by“transport as a service”, in which fleets of cars offer rides on the most extreme estimates, that could shrink the industry by as much as 90%.Lots of shared, self-driving electric cars would let cities replace car parks (up to 24% of the area in some places) with new housing, and let people commute from far away as they sleep—suburbanisation in reverse.
6 当然,这样的情况是假设人们都想拥有自己的车。电力驱动,加之打车软件和自动驾驶技术,可能意味着人们很大程度上不再需要买车,而代之以享受“交通服务”,有成群结队的车辆会按需提供搭乘服务。最糟糕的估计是,这可能让汽车产业缩水90%。大量共享自动驾驶电动汽车涌现,会让城市缩小停车场占地(在某些地方,停车场占地达24%),转而将这些占地用于建筑新的住房,这还可以让通勤路途遥远的人在途中打个盹儿——城市郊区化的趋势将发生逆转。
7 Even without a shift to safe, selfdriving vehicles, electric propulsion will offer enormous environmental and health car batteries from central power stations is more efficient than burning fuel in separate electric cars reduce carbon emissions by 54% compared with petrol-powered ones, according to America’s National Resources Defence figure will rise as electric cars become more efficient and grid-generation becomes air pollution will fall, too.The World Health Organisation says that it is the single largest environmental health risk,with outdoor air pollution contributing to 3.7m deaths a year.One study found that car emissions kill 53,000 Americans each year, against 34,000 who die in traffic accidents.
7 即使无法改用安全的自动驾驶汽车,电力驱动也会带来巨大的环境和健康益处。相比各个引擎单烧燃料,通过中心电站为汽车电池充电,能源利用率会更高。根据美国国家资源保护委员会的测算,与燃油汽车相比,目前的电动汽车可以减少54%的碳排放量。随着电动汽车能效提高,电网发电更加清洁,这一数字还会上升。当地的空气污染状况也会改善。世界卫生组织表示,户外空气污染每年导致370 万人死亡,这是危及健康最大的环境风险。一项研究发现,每年因汽车尾气死亡的美国人有5.3 万之多,而死于交通事故的只有3.4万人。
Autos and autocracies
汽车与独裁
8 And then there is twothirds of oil consumption in America is on the roads, and a fair amount of the rest uses up the by-products of refining crude oil to make petrol and oil industry is divided about when to expect peak demand; Royal Dutch Shell says that it could be little more than a decade away.The prospect will weigh on prices long before nobody wants to be left with useless oil in the ground, there will be a dearth of new investment, especially in new, high-cost areas such as the contrast, producers such as Saudi Arabia, with vast reserves that can be tapped cheaply, will be under pressure to get pumping before it is too late: the Middle East will still matter, but a lot less than it there will still be a market for natural gas, which will help generate power for all those electric cars, volatile oil prices will strain countries that depend on hydrocarbon revenues to fill the national volumes fall, the adjustment will be fraught, particularly where the struggle for power has long been about controlling oil countries such as Angola and Nigeria where oil has often been a curse, the diffusion of economic clout may bring immense benefits.
8 此外,还有石油的问题。在美国,汽车消耗了大概三分之二的石油,提炼原油生产汽油和柴油的副产品则消耗了其余的相当一部分。石油产业对于需求高峰何时到来意见不一。荷兰皇家壳牌石油公司表示可能不会超过10年。在那一刻到来之前的很长一段时间内,产业前景会使油价承担重压。因为没有人想在地下囤积毫无价值的石油,所以新的投资会不足,尤其是对于北极这样新开发的高成本地区。相比之下,像沙特阿拉伯这样的产油国,拥有大量可以廉价开采的石油储备,将面临及时开采以免为时过晚的压力。中东地区仍将重要,但相比以前,其影响力会大大削弱。尽管天然气仍会有市场,可帮助为所有那些电动汽车供电,但对于那些依靠碳氢化合物收入来支撑国家财政的国家,波动的油价会令它们掣肘。当产量下降,调整将令人担忧,特别是在一些权力之争长久以来就是石油财富控制权之争的地方。在像安哥拉和尼日利亚这样的国家,石油经常是一种诅咒,经济影响力的散播或许会带来巨大的收益。
文章来源:《小型内燃机与车辆技术》 网址: http://www.xxnrjycljs.cn/qikandaodu/2021/0730/1154.html